ETH is about to Explode

The recent approval of the ETH spot ETF is a huge development, unforeseen by many of the crypto Twitter and Tradefi nincompoops. What most of the crypto world has thus far failed to understand is the magnitude of the effects this ETF will have on the price of ETH. 

This asymmetric opportunity is perhaps one of the best risk/reward propositions left in the crypto markets. 

Let me to explain. 

Why is the ETH spot ETF so bullish for the price? 

The BTC spot ETF’s have pulled in roughly $50B since they launched 4 months ago, pushing the price of Bitcoin from $46K at the time of the approval to a new all-time-high of near $74K by mid march, 2 months later. 

The impact of the spot ETH ETF on the price of ETH will be significantly higher: 

Ethereum has 1/3rd the market cap, and requires less capital inflow to move the price. 

A portion of the BTC ETF holdings will migrate to ETH in search of more alpha. 

Having seen the bullish performance of BTC post-approval, TradeFi will expect a price run-up once the ETF is actually live and pile into the ETF’s faster, creating a upwards price spiral. 

ETH has significantly underperformed to date, and has lots of ground to make up. Historically, ETH has generally lagged BTC in the early portions of the cycle, but has shown signs of a reversal in recent weeks. 

ETH is seen by tradeFi as more of a technology, a sector which is very well understood by the traditional markets. They will be more active in acquiring ETH. 

ETH is deflationary, and the level of deflation increases with activity, which could see the bull market push the deflation to levels that drain exchanges and circulating ETH even further. 

ETH available on exchanges is at 6 yr historic lows, currently sitting at only 13.5M ETH. 

Staking has locked up 27% of the total ETH supply, currently over 32M ETH and climbing. 

ETH has staking “native” yield. This is a hugely attractive feature for tradefi, and although it is not yet live on the first iterations of the spot ETFs, it is highly likely that a staked version of the ETF launches in the coming years. 

S-1 Applications and amendments are being finalized (last step before ETH ETF listing). ETF will go live in the coming weeks. 

Grayscale will have a low-fee mini-ETF on day 1, alleviating some of the sell pressure from folks escaping the high fees of the ETHE grayscale Trust. 

Existing ETH ETFs in Canada have $480M in AUM vs $2.5B for BTC, roughly 20% ETH:BTC. ETHE by Grayscale has $11B in AUM, while GBTC has $19B (down from $28B at time of spot BTC ETF approval), roughly 35% from previous highs. Expect ETH ETFs to pull in somewhere in the region of 25% of the BTC AUM, approx. $12–15B. 

Derivates on the ETH ETFs have far more potential than on BTC long term. 

How to Capitalize on the ETH Price Explosion: 

As a longer term investor, I am already fully positioned in ETH. That said, I have made some minor short term investments to capitalize on the disparity between ETH fundamentals and price. 

$COIN Long term calls (June 2025) 

ETH Mid term Calls on ETHH.B (Late Aug-Dec 2024) 

ETH Perpetuals on GMX (smaller bet in which I went long at 11X ETH backed perps) 

ETH L2’s like $MATIC, $ARB, $OP, etc. Perpetuals on the L2s for the more adventurous (not in my risk profile)