When nothing happens with Bitcoin

Crypto is pretty unique. In this space, there would be a week when a year happens, and then there would be weeks when nothing ever happens. Currently, we’re in the second situation. And this situation often drives people crazy more than the period when there was a lot of volatility. 

I saw a tweet the other day about how to deal in this market which I agree. Basically, if you are an expert trader, just take a vacation. But if you aren’t good and are still learning, the current situation is a perfect time to polish your skills. I categorize myself in the second group (Probably I will always be), so here I am. 

Low volatility is calm, it gives you a chance to monitor Bitcoin through indicators and act upon that at a slower, more casual pace. No rush or FOMO unlike when hunting the bottom of a market crash. It can be quite a relaxing period with a lower expectation for the market. 

Similarities with the past 

The first flush and the Christmas selloff back in December 2024 created wicks, and that wick ended up filled. 

I don’t doubt a similar scenario would also happen with the recent Deepseek/tariff dump. This is my general outlook for Bitcoin short term. 

As you notice, the choppy periods still entertained us with several volatility events like mini-rallies, so the market wasn’t exactly uneventful. Again, moving forward Bitcoin may also behave like in the past. There’s always no straightforward path both up and down with Bitcoin. It likes to take the winding road. 

The daily main setup 

This is what my chart looks like lately. 

On a sideways period, I found simpler data works enough. Unlike during the pump or dump when you need a lot of tools, my chart these days only displays: 

Value area indicators 

MACD 15m, 30m, and 1 hour. 

That’s it. 

The value area is to monitor Bitcoin's attempts to reclaim a bullish zone and turn resistance into supports. At this point, Bitcoin is consistently trading below the past month’s Value area, and staying at the lower part of the previous week’s value area. 

However, again, I maintain a low expectation for Bitcoin to be successful in doing it (bullish reclaim) in the short term. So far, bounces are getting ferociously sold off, and we usually don’t pump until a significant move downward happens beforehand. 

There are still a lot of long positions below the current price with high-leveraged liquidations being quite high at $94k- $95k. Trust me, the market (or specifically, exchanges) never give an easy win to high-risk, crowded trading positions. 

Liquidation huntings 

A sideways market is eager to rekt both sides. Especially when there’s low participation in the market, it’s easy to trigger illiquid moves (manipulation) that result in wicks/whipsaws. 

When the Market is done wiping out positions, it will move in the opposite direction. Naturally, because there’s no more liquid area to go to except in the other direction, and Bitcoin always moves toward the price point where a lot of liquidity exists. 

Most of the time the reversal will also create confluence with MACDs. That’s why a combo between these two indicators (MACD and Liquidation) has been enough to deal with Bitcoin's tight-range fluctuation this past week. 

So far, the peak green (bullish) histogram always marks the top for Bitcoin. It indicates we’re really in a downtrend with bounces regularly getting sold off. To confirm these retests I also use the usual MA lines to see which lines BTC tapped. 

Local top is marked with peaking green histogram. 

Only tap these lines, EMA34 (green) and MA50 (blue), but candles never closed above it. 

Ignoring market participation data 

Lately, I find market participation data to be completely useless. Except for short-term trade liquidations, these are data that have not been providing any useful insight. 

Funding rates. They have been useless since December ATHs anyway. 

Spot inflow and outflow. Indecisiveness in the market results in unremarkable spot data. Binance spot has been largely, cumulatively selling since December. Recently we found out they have indeed been unloading their company’s BTC to adjust their reverse. This fact alone puts a lot of noise into the spot volume data. When one actor contributes the majority of the statistics, it makes the data generally useless. 

Open Interest. Most trading activity these days is done by short-term retails, and they are eventually stopped or liquidated. Long-term whales are mostly staying out. In general, trading has been down a lot since Trump’s inauguration. 

Practical Strategies 

What has been personally working well for me: 

Start a trade after a liquidation happened. 

Smaller size, lower timeframe. 

Do not go against the MACD. For example, don’t short when the histogram is green and rising. 

For as long as bulls are failing to reclaim key value areas, there remains no solid footing for a long-term position. 

So far it’s been easier to short than long, for as long as you enter the trade after liquidation happened. And until a while ago that’s what I have been doing